The share of BEVs in new passenger car sales on the Polish market will increase to 14.5% within three years, according to the latest edition of the „Polish EV Outlook” report, prepared by the Polish Alternative Fuels Association (PSPA). In 2025, annual sales of zero-emission cars in Poland could exceed 100,000 units.
The second edition of the „Polish EV Outlook 2022” on more than 260 pages presents the current status and development forecasts of the Polish zero- and low-emission transportation market. The report contains a body of knowledge on electromobility in both national and local dimensions, unavailable in any other source. According to data from IBRM Samar, which is one of the substantive partners of „PEVO 2022” at the end of the first half of 2022, the cumulative number of registrations of electrically powered cars in Poland was 51,844 BEV and PHEV passenger cars and vans.
In just half a year, the fleet of such vehicles has grown by about a third, and since 2020 – almost tripled. In the first half of 2022, 10,649 new electric vehicles were registered in Poland (25% more than in the same period of 2021), as well as 2009 imported vehicles of this type (+42% y/y). The second edition of the „Polish EV Outlook 2022” shows that between 2014 and 2022, the share of electric cars in new vehicle sales in Poland increased from 0.05% to 4.78%. This is almost four times less than the average in the European Union, which according to ACEA was 18.6% at the end of the first half of 2022.
Electric cars in Polish cities and voivodeships
Electromobility in Poland continues to be concentrated primarily in the largest cities. The second edition of the „Polish EV Outlook 2022” shows that the largest number of electric vehicles – nearly 22.9% of the total Polish fleet – were registered in Warsaw. In the first half of 2022, the capital accounted for almost 23% of new BEV and PHEV registrations in Poland. Approx. 28% of Poland’s EV fleet was registered in cities with populations between 300,000 and 1 million – Krakow, Lodz, Wroclaw, Poznan, Gdansk, Szczecin, Bydgoszcz and Lublin. The fleet in smaller urban centers, with a population of 150,000 to 300,000, accounts for about 13% of the total number of EVs in Poland. By contrast, the share of cities with a population of 50,000 to 150,000 is 10.6%.
– Significant differences in the development of the electric vehicle fleet are also observed at the provincial level. The Mazowieckie Voivodeship has registered almost 1/3 of all BEVs and PHEVs in Poland. The second place belongs to Wielkopolskie Voivodeship with a share of 11%, and the third place belongs to Małopolskie Voivodeship with a share of 10%. At the opposite pole are Lubuskie, Warmian-Masurian, Świętokrzyskie and Opolskie provinces. Their combined share is about 4% – said Jan Wiśniewski, director of the PSPA Research and Analysis Center.
Electric cars have already been registered in every Polish county, but in almost a quarter of them the number of EVs does not exceed 10. In one in six counties the number of registered BEVs and PHEVs is at least 100.
The most popular zero-emission models
The second edition of „Polish EV Outlook 2022” also includes a collection of detailed information on the BEV and PHEV product range available on the Polish market. Based on the report, Poles can choose from 89 all-electric car models (68 cars and 21 vans) and 107 plug-in hybrids. The reported numbers become even higher when all battery and powertrain variants are taken into account. In the first half of 2022, 8 new BEV models appeared in the Polish offer. In contrast, the number of PHEV models available on the market fell for the first time in history (by 7). This is, among other things, a consequence of the disruption of global supply chains and difficulties with the availability of certain vehicles. The PSPA report shows that the most popular BEV brands in terms of total registrations in Poland are Nissan, Tesla and BMW. In the PHEV segment, on the other hand, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Volvo were on the podium.
– Among the most popular BEV models purchased by Poles in the first half of 2022 were the Tesla Model 3, Ford Mustang Mach-E and KIA EV6. In turn, the most popular plug-in hybrids were electrified versions of the Toyota RAV4, Volvo XC60 and Mitsubishi Eclipse Cross. From the perspective of buyers, the range of electric cars is becoming increasingly attractive. The average range of passenger BEVs available on the Polish market is already almost 400 km on a single charge, while the average capacity of the traction battery exceeds 71 kWh – said Albert Kania, Senior New Mobility Manager at PSPA.
Forecast of electric car market development in Poland
For the purposes of the second edition of „Polish EV Outlook 2022” three different scenarios for the development of the electric car market have been developed, with variants assuming either no, continued or significantly expanded support programs for the electromobility sector in Poland. In addition, the forecasts are based on a number of different factors, such as EU, national and local regulations, leading trends in the automotive sector (including in the battery area), technology development, implementation of clean transport zones, or progressive changes in consumer habits.
– 2022 is already another challenging year in a row. The forecasts included in the „Polish EV Outlook” take into account the effects of the war in Ukraine, the disruption of global supply chains, rising prices of key resources, galloping inflation and the risk of a return of the COVID-19 pandemic. Under these specific conditions, however, electromobility in Poland is doing unexpectedly well. EV sales in just the first six months of 2022 turned out to be higher than the entire fleet of such vehicles at the end of 2019, and we expect that by 2025 the share of all-electric cars in the new passenger vehicle market will increase more than sixfold from today and reach 14.5%. At the same time, the total number of BEVs and PHEVs driving on Polish roads will increase to more than 430,000, while the number of new registrations will rise to more than 100,000. However, in the coming months – due to the difficult geopolitical and economic situation – the electromobility market will develop more slowly than predicted by the forecasts included in previous editions of the „Polish EV Outlook” – said Maciej Mazur, Managing Director of PSPA.
In addition to data on the car market, the second edition of „Polish EV Outlook 2022” also includes a comprehensive analysis of the charging infrastructure network in Poland and forecasts for its expansion by 2040 (for the first time in two separate scenarios). The report also describes in detail the legal regulations shaping the Polish electromobility market. The content of the second edition of „Polish EV Outlook” also includes an analysis of the fleet of electric buses in Polish cities, prepared in cooperation with IGKM (Chamber of Commerce of Urban Transport), and a forecast of the growth of energy demand associated with the development of electromobility in Poland. New in the latest edition of the report is an extensive analysis of the current mood among the leading stakeholders in the Polish e-mobility sector: manufacturers of electric cars, suppliers of private charging stations, CFM companies and operators of public infrastructure. In addition, the second edition of „Polish EV Outlook 2022” details the preferences of electric car drivers in Poland regarding the use of private and public charging stations, determined on the basis of several hundred online interviews organized among EV Klub Polska members.
For more information about „Polish EV Outlook 2022”, as well as the opportunity to order the report, visit: polishevoutlook.pl
